What explains Mamata Banerjee’s Nandigram entry?

Talking at a rally in Nandigram on January 18, West Bengal chief minister and All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) president Mamata Banerjee introduced that she would contest the forthcoming meeting elections from Nandigram together with Bhabanipur, the meeting constituency (AC) in Kolkata she at present represents. Banerjee’s choice comes within the wake of the Nandigram’s incumbent MLA and erstwhile AITC heavyweight Suvendu Adhikari defecting to the Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP).

What explains this choice? Listed below are 4 components which may also help us reply this query.

1. AITC hopes to restrict Suvendu Adhikari in Nandigram

The BJP has not introduced a chief ministerial candidate in West Bengal, and possibly won't announce one as properly. It shocked the AITC within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by successful 18 out of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies within the state, and crossed the 40% vote share mark, a 23 proportion factors leap from its 2014 efficiency. Whereas the 2019 outcomes clearly present the BJP as an ascendant drive on the cusp of energy within the state, the get together nonetheless lacks a political face to match Mamata Banerjee’s recognition. That is very true in South Bengal, the largest subregion by way of seats, the place the AITC managed to stop a BJP surge even in 2019.

In Suvendu Adhikari, the BJP has been capable of get an necessary mass chief in South Bengal. The BJP expects Adhikari to assist it in bridging its deficit vis-a-vis the AITC in South Bengal. With Banerjee saying her choice to contest from Nandigram, Adhikari should dedicate appreciable time in his personal AC now. That Banerjee introduced her candidature from Nandigram on a day when Adhikari was doing a highway present in Kolkata has conveyed this message clearly.

2. Mamata’s candidature may forestall a Hindu consolidation behind the BJP

In response to the 2011 census, Muslims comprised of 27% of West Bengal’s inhabitants, decrease than the proportion of Muslims in just one different Indian state, Assam. Jammu & Kashmir, the one Muslim-majority state in India within the 2011 census, is now a Union territory. With the BJP’s rising graph, the 2021 elections will maybe see sharp communal polarisation with Muslims uniting behind the AITC to stop the opportunity of a BJP authorities. The BJP is hoping to create a big counter-polarisation of Hindus. Banerjee’s choice to contest from Nandigram might be an clever technique . Whereas Purba Medinipur, the district the place Nandigram is positioned, has solely 14.6% Muslim inhabitants, Nandigram has a bigger share of Muslims. The 2011 census offers a religion-wise breakup of inhabitants on the degree of blocks and census cities. Knowledge for Purba Medinipur has non secular composition of inhabitants for blocks of Nandigram-I, Nandigram-II and the census city of Nandigram. Muslims had a inhabitants share of 34%, 12.1% and 40.3%, respectively in these census items.

To make sure, it's not essential that the Nandigram AC has an entire overlap with these three census items. Nonetheless, a take a look at previous three election statistics for Nandigram means that the Muslim vote is a vital part on this AC. In 2006, each the winner (CPI) and runner-up (AITC) candidates from this AC have been Muslims, and the victory margin was simply 3.4% of the whole votes polled. In 2011, the AITC fielded a Muslim who defeated a Hindu candidate from the CPI by a margin of 26% of whole votes polled. Suvendu Adhikari’s vote share in 2016 was seven proportion factors greater than the AITC’s 2011 vote share, despite the fact that the CPI fielded a Muslim candidate. This means that Muslims have been an necessary a part of the AITC’s assist base on this AC. To make sure, AC boundaries in 2006 and the following elections may have modified due to the 2008 delimitation. Had Banerjee not contested from Nandigram, the AITC would most likely have ended up fielding a Muslim candidate, which might have helped the BJP in pushing for a Hindu consolidation not simply in Nandigram however in contiguous areas as properly.

3. Bhabanipur may not be a cakewalk in at the moment’s West Bengal

Whereas Banerjee’s announcement has shifted all focus to Nandigram, it must be underlined that Bhabanipur may not be a very secure seat for her in at the moment’s circumstances. Previous election statistics underline this reality. The BJP truly managed a slender lead of 0.13 proportion factors within the Bhabanipur AC within the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Whereas Banerjee registered an enormous victory within the 2016 meeting elections and the BJP was relegated to the third place, the 2019 common elections have been as soon as once more very shut, and the AITC may handle a lead of nearly two proportion factors towards the BJP.

Bhabanipur is understood to be a locality with a big non-Bengali Hindu inhabitants, which is extra prone to be pro-BJP. In actual fact, Kolkata district has the bottom share of Bengali talking folks after Darjeeling, and the best share of Hindi audio system within the state. The BJP is hoping to take advantage of this to its benefit. That the AITC has been utilizing the rhetoric of outsiders (non-Bengali) to focus on the BJP’s nationwide management may find yourself aiding the efforts of the BJP. As a result of the Kolkata Municipal Company elections have been postponed because of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, it's tough to foretell whether or not issues have modified from what they have been in 2019.

4. The symbolism of Nandigram will maintain the Left Entrance underneath strain

The deaths of 14 folks in police firing throughout a 2007 anti land-acquisition battle in Nandigram will proceed to be the nemesis of the Communist Celebration of India (Marxist)-led Left Entrance (LF) which dominated West Bengal from 1977 to 2011. Whereas the LF is an emaciated self of what it was once even a decade in the past – its vote share fell sharply from 39.7% within the 2011 elections to simply 7.5% within the 2019 common polls – its efficiency may matter lots in what is anticipated to be a really shut contest between the AITC and the BJP. The AITC even appealed to the LF and the Congress to assist it towards the BJP a number of days in the past . With the pre-poll alliance of the LF and the Congress making the polls a three-way contest, Banerjee’s Nandigram candidature may even maintain the narrative of the LF’s anti-peasant previous alive, stopping any injury to the AITC’s voter base.