Singapore imports and exports fell last year but growth for 2021 projected

SINGAPORE: Singapore’s whole merchandise commerce decreased by 5.2 per cent final 12 months, reaching S$969 billion in comparison with S$1 trillion in 2019.

However commerce figures for 2021 are anticipated to develop, as Enterprise Singapore upgraded an earlier forecast from between 1 per cent and three per cent to between 2 per cent and 4 per cent.

The decline of 5.2 per cent in total commerce for 2020 is especially on account of a 31 per cent discount in oil commerce, amid decrease oil costs than a 12 months in the past, in line with official information launched on Monday (Feb 15).

Non-oil commerce rose barely by 0.7 per cent in 2020, after a 0.3 per cent lower in 2019.

Each exports and imports decreased by 3.2 per cent and seven.4 per cent respectively in 2020.

For the fourth quarter of 2020, Singapore’s whole merchandise commerce fell by 5.1 per cent in comparison with a 12 months earlier than, following a 4.8 per cent lower in Q3. This was as a result of lower in oil commerce, which outweighed the rise in non-oil commerce.  

Oil commerce fell by 34.8 per cent in This autumn 2020, following the earlier quarter’s 30.8 per cent decline, whereas non-oil commerce rose by 1.3 per cent in This autumn 2020, after the earlier quarter’s 0.8 per cent development.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted (SA) foundation, whole merchandise commerce elevated by 0.7 per cent in This autumn, after the earlier quarter’s development of 6.9 per cent.

Oil commerce decreased by 2.3 per cent whereas non-oil commerce grew by 1.2 per cent in This autumn.

NON-OIL EXPORTS

Non-oil exports (NOX), which embody each non-oil home exports (NODX) and non-oil re-exports (NORX), rose year-on-year by 1.7 per cent in 2020, after 2019’s 1.9 per cent decline.

On a quarter-on-quarter SA foundation, NOX grew by 0.5 per cent in This autumn, following the 5.1 per cent rise within the previous quarter.

Following a drop of 9.2 per cent in 2019, a development of 4.3 per cent in NODX final 12 months was on account of excessive shipments of each digital and non-electronic merchandise, Enterprise Singapore mentioned.

Digital NODX grew by 4.9 per cent in 2020, after the 22.5 per cent contraction within the earlier 12 months. Non-electronic NODX elevated by 4.1 per cent in 2020, after the 4.5 per cent decline in 2019.

On a year-on-year foundation, NODX decreased by 0.5 per cent in This autumn, after the earlier quarter’s 6.5 per cent rise, as a result of decline in non-electronic NODX, which outweighed the rise in electronics.

Digital home exports rose by 2.6 per cent in This autumn, following the earlier quarter’s 9.2 per cent development. Non-electronic NODX declined by 1.4 per cent in This autumn, after the 5.7 per cent rise within the earlier quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter SA foundation, NODX decreased by 4.7 per cent in This autumn, after the two.2 per cent development in Q3, as a result of decline in each digital and non-electronic NODX.

Digital home exports declined on a quarter-on-quarter SA foundation by 3.7 per cent in This autumn 2020, following the earlier quarter’s 2.6 per cent lower. Non-electronic NODX declined by 4.9 per cent in This autumn 2020, after the three.7 per cent rise within the earlier quarter.

Enterprise Singapore reported that NODX to all high markets grew as an entire in 2020 – nevertheless, exports to China, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Malaysia declined.

The most important contributors to the expansion in NODX had been the US (+38.3 per cent), Japan (+26.1 per cent) and South Korea (+27.2 per cent).

Digital NODX to the highest markets additionally grew in 2020.

The most important contributors to the digital NODX improve had been Taiwan (+27.9 per cent), the US (+31.9 per cent) and Thailand (+17.9 per cent). The highest three merchandise contributing to the rise in digital NODX had been ICs to Taiwan and disk media merchandise to the US and Thailand.

Non-electronic NODX to the highest markets as an entire additionally elevated in 2020, although exports to China, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Malaysia declined.

The most important contributors to the expansion in non-electronic NODX had been the US (+39.6 per cent), Japan (+33.7 per cent) and the EU 27 (+10.9 per cent). The highest three merchandise contributing to the rise in non-electronic NODX had been non-monetary gold to the US and EU and prescribed drugs to Japan.

OIL TRADE

Oil home exports contracted by 28.1 per cent in 2020, following the 12.9 per cent decline within the earlier 12 months. The decline in oil home exports was on account of decrease shipments of oil to Malaysia (-47.2 per cent), Indonesia (-47.4 per cent) and Australia (-45.8 per cent).

On a year-on-year foundation, oil home exports contracted by 30.6 per cent in This autumn, extending the 29.1 per cent decline within the earlier quarter.

On a quarter-on-quarter SA foundation, oil home exports grew by 1.2 per cent in This autumn, following the 25.8 per cent growth within the earlier quarter.

2021 OUTLOOK

For the reason that Enterprise Singapore’s final replace in November, the 2021 world financial and commerce outlook has remained broadly unchanged, with development anticipated from a low base in 2020, the company mentioned.

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast the global economy to grow by 5.5 per cent in 2021, with recovery expected to be uneven across economies.

“There remain risks and uncertainties in the global economy, with growth forecast for some of Singapore’s key trade partners such as the US and Japan,” the agency said, while trade with other partners, such as China, has been adjusted downwards.

“On the trade front, the IMF expects global trade volumes to grow by 8.1 per cent in 2021, after 2020’s 9.6 per cent decline."

In the meantime, improved oil costs for the reason that final replace might present some help for Singapore's oil commerce in nominal phrases and in flip whole commerce in 2021.

The expansion projection this 12 months is adjusted upwards to “+2.0 per cent to +4.0 per cent” for whole merchandise commerce, and maintained at “0.0 per cent to +2.0 per cent” for NODX,” Enterprise Singapore mentioned.