Brexit: Europe and UK braced for turmoil amid fears Boris Johnson could break agreement he signed

Frost met once more Friday with European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič -- their fourth such assembly previously month. Their feedback afterward instructed neither facet needs to desert talks and embark on a commerce conflict simply but.Speaking at a information convention, Šefčovič welcomed what he referred to as "the change in tone of discussion with David Frost," saying he hoped this might "lead to tangible results for the people in Northern Ireland," in line with Reuters.The back-and-forth has created fears of additional Brexit-related turmoil, even because the UK's Conservative authorities grapples with ongoing provide chain points exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, amid concern over how far all sides is keen to go. "I think there's been essentially a scoping exercise going on -- or another way of putting it is a game of chicken -- and both sides are testing out the seriousness of the other," Catherine Barnard, professor of European and employment regulation on the University of Cambridge, informed CNN.

"The EU has been briefing out all of the things that the EU would do if the UK triggers Article 16 unlawfully," Barnard defined. "Triggering Article 16 in and of itself is not an unlawful act. What is unlawful is using it to completely rewrite the Protocol."

Former PM criticizes UK strategy

Despite the continued talks, Frost's remarks in Brussels have sparked broad hypothesis that the UK authorities could also be getting ready to set off Article 16 imminently.

This could be "colossally stupid," Major mentioned, as he warned that suspending elements of the protocol would "add to destabilization in Northern Ireland" and erode UK relations with each Europe and Washington. The UK was negotiating over the protocol "with all the subtlety of a brick," he added.

The "safeguards" which could be carried out underneath Article 16 usually are not spelled out within the Protocol however could embody steps reminiscent of both facet imposing focused tariffs, analysts say. There would even be an arbitration course of.However, Johnson and Frost's dislike for the agreement they themselves signed final December has fueled fears the UK authorities could search to make use of the Article 16 mechanism to attain a wider intention of rewriting the deal.Johnson's authorities may search to do that by suspending the provisions within the Protocol that hold Northern Ireland within the EU Customs Union and apply EU guidelines to items, Barnard instructed, thereby undermining your complete Protocol. "If the UK were to do that, the EU has made it clear it would retaliate with force... in terms of a trade war," she mentioned.There's even been some suggestion that the EU may droop the primary commerce deal, or Trading Cooperation Agreement, with the UK, Emily Lydgate, deputy director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory and senior lecturer in regulation on the University of Sussex, informed CNN.Frost appeared to melt his language considerably within the UK House of Lords on Wednesday, saying he wouldn't surrender negotiating with the EU "unless and until it is abundantly clear that nothing more can be done. We are certainly not at that point yet."But he stored the emergency brake on the desk, including: "If, however, we do in due course reach that point, the Article 16 safeguards will be our only option."On the identical day, Ireland's Tánaiste (deputy prime minister) Leo Varadkar warned that triggering Article 16 wouldn't lead to a greater deal for the UK.

"You were part of negotiating it, you own it, it was hard won, it's a mistake to think that by escalating tensions or by trying to withdraw from any part of it, that you'll end up with a better deal: you won't."

'A harmful sport'

The Protocol was agreed between the UK and EU to replicate the particular standing of Northern Ireland: out of the EU, together with the remainder of the UK, however sharing a delicate land border with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state.Under the Protocol, items can movement freely between Northern Ireland and the Republic, avoiding the necessity for a tough border -- an important measure in stopping a return to sectarian violence on the island. The UK agreed that it will in flip shield the EU's single market by imposing checks on items coming into Northern Ireland from the British mainland, successfully drawing a customs border down the Irish Sea.Full implementation of these checks has been delayed underneath repeatedly prolonged "grace periods." Nonetheless, there have been provide chain points and unionists in Northern Ireland really feel let down by the federal government in Whitehall.

In October, the EU responded with a proposal to streamline regulatory compliance checks inside the framework of the deal. It was a "reasonably generous offer," mentioned Barnard, however was contingent on the UK taking steps which haven't but been carried out.Carlo Petrucci, lecturer in EU regulation on the University of Essex, mentioned the UK authorities's strategy seemed to be motivated by home politics and that it was arduous to inform how critical it was. Triggering Article 16, which could result in retaliatory measures reminiscent of quotas or tariffs being imposed by the EU, could be a "dangerous game," he mentioned. Such a transfer could additionally injury the UK's standing because it seeks to barter different commerce offers. "Clearly the UK government is aware that there is a loss of international credibility at the moment that it wants to renege on the Protocol," Petrucci informed CNN.Questioned within the House of Lords on Wednesday, Frost -- accused by opponents of "sabre-rattling" over the Protocol -- insisted that the UK authorities wished to come back to a negotiated agreement with the EU. That was, he mentioned, "the best way forward for stability, sustainability and prosperity in Northern Ireland."Frost added: "I do not think that the threats that are swirling around of a reaction to Article 16 are in any way helpful, but obviously that is the business of the European Union."

US strain

"President Biden and I, we share the assessment that it is important for peace and stability on the island of Ireland to keep the withdrawal agreement and to stick to the Protocol. This Protocol has managed to square the difficult circle that Brexit caused," she informed reporters exterior the White House."We are willing as a European Union to show the utmost flexibility and we have shown utmost flexibility within the Protocol -- but it is important to stick to what we have agreed and signed together, to work with that."

US strain could also be an element within the UK firming down its rhetoric after showing able to set off Article 16 as soon as COP26 was out of the best way, mentioned Lydgate.

"Obviously the US has come down against this, and so for the UK to take a policy decision that angers and alienates the EU and angers and alienates the US is a pretty bold move," she mentioned."My sense is that the UK is sensitive to some extent to the reputational damage this could cause and that they aren't likely to trigger Article 16 imminently, but nor are they likely to back down in the sense of saying that they accept the EU's reform proposals and bring an end to the dispute."Instead, Lydgate mentioned, it appears doubtless the UK and the EU will enter into one other interval of discussions, leaving the problem dragging on.Meanwhile, the EU is eager to point out the UK that it's "no pushover," mentioned Barnard, and to display to Poland and Hungary, two member states at present difficult the bloc's authorized established order, in addition to to different world buying and selling companions, "that the EU takes the treaties it signs seriously.""The stakes are much bigger than just the EU-UK relationship," she mentioned. "The political question is whether Boris Johnson has got the stomach for a fight of this kind... There's already quite a lot on his plate."